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Horizon Group

By Margareta Drzeniek

A general view of an oil field in Saudi Arabia. Many countries have undertaken major reform efforts to reduce commodity dependency. Photo: Fayez Nureldine/AFP via Getty Images/ Re-published from BRINK.

The Arab world has historically been a hotspot for global risks. Over the past decades, the risk nexus of a tense geopolitical environment, high levels of youth unemployment and governments’ inability to diversify economies has been challenging the region’s leaders.

The COVID pandemic accelerated pressures on income, and the twin transition to net zero and a more technology-driven economy will only exacerbate the region’s exposure to global risks and underlying gaps in resilience. …


The COVID19 pandemic has affected all the countries indiscriminately. However, given the large differences between the countries in economic and socio-political terms when they entered the crisis, the depth of the impact, the rigor and duration of the containment measures, the recovery is unlikely to be symmetrical, and certainly not simultaneous.

Based on a proprietary analysis of publicly available data designed to support policymakers and executives, Horizon’s COVID Economic Recovery Index assesses how 122 countries are positioned for recovery, according to their overall health resilience, and the preexisting structural strengths and weaknesses at the core of their recovery capacity.

Nordic…


While home-learning has been the new norm since the pandemic started, it is expected that this is only the beginning of what is about to come in the future which will completely change the way we learn. Here, we will present to you some of our insights on how technology will shape education by 2050. Our findings can be used as a a base for future thinking, and not a prediction of the future.

Learning virtually anywhere, anytime. By 2050, access from anywhere will enable learning and collaboration, both locally and globally. Teaching and learning will be social and interaction…


Looking out 30 years, we assume the fundamental role of government will be similar but the shape of government systems and how they function will change significantly.

It is expected that access to data and AI-assisted modelling and planning will enable governments to be more agile, proactive and more-long-term. Leaders can draw on rapid modelling and prototyping to “test” strategies and policy choices under different scenario.

Mapping the world; charting the future. With almost unlimited access to data about their citizens’ lives and sentiment and economic output, impact and resources, governments will be in a position to make rapid, informed…


Companies that base their strategies solely on past performance are doomed to fail, while a holistic approach to capturing and analyzing data can help businesses predict the impact of their decisions on future success. Here, we are presenting you some insights on how the business landscape will look like by 2050 and we will try to give you a chance to view the world of business through different lenses.

Transportation

First of all, we are expecting a much greener transport. New forms of energy will capture, storage and transmission and advanced fuels and materials mean most modes of transport will be…


Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present our insights of how the economic landscape will be shaped by 2050 based on macroeconomic shifts, international trade, supply chains and investment, as well as productivity, currencies and business innovation.

Firstly, as far as global risks is concerned, the forecasting-preparedness gap will remain. The digitalisation and high degree of interdependence of economies and societies means that the world will remain vulnerable to shocks triggering widespread economic consequences.

All models will underscore the need for investment in emergency preparedness and rapid transregional and…


Have you thought about how Infrastructure and Sustainability will look like by 2050? It might seem like a long time ahead, but we have collected some insights and a base for future thinking. Below we present how the future of cities, housing, and environment will be shaped based on long term key trends.

Firstly, we believe that there will be more urbanities and people will be living in more megacities. This means that megacities will form dense networks of connected people, systems and objects, ensuring security, services and a range of social and physical infrastructure. …


Horizon Group shares some insights on how society will be shaped by 2050 based on Social contract, Demographics, Health, Norms and Culture, Future values, Media, Arts, Sport & Recreation.

A base for future thinking, not a prediction of the future.

It is expected that by 2050, following a period of social unrest and populism in advanced countries, a new social contract will emerge to govern the relationships between stakeholders at both the economic and political levels as the millennial generation comes into positions of power. It will give a voice and accountability, reduction of inequality and redistribution of wealth through…


COVID19 shone a spotlight on income inequality and how it undermines resilience. While businesses showed a high degree of agility by transferring many low touch, higher skilled roles from office building to employees’ homes, this is not an option for many high touch, low skilled jobs in services, manufacturing, tourism and hospitality and other vulnerable industries.

Such jobs are more likely to be less well-paid, less secure, part-time, and held by women, people from minority groups and migrants. According to Horizon-Group and the insights on the COVID Economic Recovery Index, among the G20 countries, several score poorly for their dependence…


As countries look to a recovery Post-COVID, two fundamental factors will play an important role, according to Horizon-Group insights: their exposure to industries likely to continue to operate at reduced output and hence employment levels and the strength of their labour markets and policies.

​Among the countries heading the COVID Economic Recovery Index ranking, many score relatively poorly for their dependence on vulnerable industries, including the Netherlands, the US, the UK, and Singapore, who is 119th.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on International Labour Organization modeled estimates of employment by sex and economic activity (available at https://ilostat.ilo.org/data). The following economic sectors…

Horizon Group

We are a Swiss Think Tank that promotes a transition towards a future economy that is sustainable, inclusive, technology-driven and growing.

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